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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
" z* d3 C* \9 i, X; } \. W The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' g: G7 o$ b9 W/ M( oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 h( l+ b. `% X& _impose liquidation values.% L) T# W8 W8 a c- Q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 U1 o; O( ? j: \9 y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& M" S `! _5 U; L# s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 N6 G2 m0 C% I8 ]scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
7 j3 C3 U0 O+ ?$ n Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 B7 A1 w! L7 Q8 z% X
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, I" J; N& m: x5 Q/ B" |. W High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! q; Z4 i* y5 K# }
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 J" p4 h3 A4 x9 {; t- H
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# M p) m( B/ @access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; t& u A( ^& X7 B# F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are/ H0 p1 A+ l3 d/ ]+ |
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.8 |) o5 V* I5 C" w2 q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 k8 m9 Z+ S) t# Ifinding financing.9 g+ ]. C; d' {6 b) A5 J. z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ h" O/ F, N# z3 C& O. n: Z! q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% _6 }1 J+ |; O, I7 R2 ?5 V Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( T3 D% I. m T2 V
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& ~ k2 q* v2 x! Kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' h, S# e, r6 l7 x+ \! O/ S9 `
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' t3 N- S' A( f9 o4 ~
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 j& g' o. {+ o# V* Z: n V
today.
$ |4 u5 o, ]. I: D Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; f$ l3 q3 B w) N$ h
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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