![](source/plugin/floweregg/images/flower.gif) 鲜花( 152) ![](source/plugin/floweregg/images/egg.gif) 鸡蛋( 1)
|
![](static/image/common/ico_lz.png)
楼主 |
发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
|
显示全部楼层
Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.
6 z5 Y4 U0 G" t$ ?5 R8 A3 N$ I) j- H6 \% v: {
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:. n/ r, D% K8 A( H
% S1 l# q+ N# T& y" I! I( v& l1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.3 v0 W; g0 V; p# X" y7 G
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).& I8 i9 X- I( m' A3 U* j
3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
|