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发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
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Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.! Z; i5 e6 M3 q5 b6 A0 Y
- S2 E$ i8 D: l' c+ n/ n- N! sThe theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
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* ]: W/ [, z, D1 H# x, V, X! |2 S4 m1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
7 n W8 T1 W$ `2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
6 u0 [, A( d8 i! }4 N: A% |& y3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
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