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发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
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Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.( K& q* I1 g; d% E
+ u; b3 |" t' Y! G6 [" C+ a, U- FThe theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
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1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
" u- @8 W4 X4 t! e: {2 P% n2 }- [* g" `2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
1 D8 v6 E7 D7 z+ K. N3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
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